The Fed is set to raise interest rates again next week. Here's what to look out for.

“You do have to think about what the reasonable level (of interest rate) is… The goal is to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that will push inflation down… but it doesn’t mean that you go up forever.”  

James Bullard (20 October)

“I imagine we will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting…. I anticipate additional rate hikes into early next year, and I will be watching the data carefully to decide the appropriate pace of tightening as we continue to move into more restrictive territory."

Christopher Waller (6 October 2022)

“Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates…at that point, I think we should hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work.”

Patrick Harker (20 October 2022)

“It’s really challenging to step down right now… We are not there yet. (However) The time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.”

Mary Daly (21 October 2022)

“When talking about future inflation, it is most helpful to focus on measures of core inflation… A step-down in non-housing core inflation, if sustained over several months, would be a big improvement in inflation. While housing seems likely to continue contributing to high inflation in the near term, in the medium-term higher mortgage rates should slow the housing component of inflation as housing demand cools.”

Christopher Waller (6 October 2022)

“If we do not see signs that inflation is moving down, my view continues to be that sizable increases in the target range for the federal funds rate should remain on the table. However, if inflation starts to decline, I believe a slower pace of rate increases would be appropriate. To bring inflation down in a consistent and lasting way, the federal funds rate will need to move up to a restrictive level and remain there for some time. However, it is not yet clear how high we will need to raise the federal funds rate and how much time will pass before we begin to see inflation moving back down in a consistent and lasting way.”

Michelle Bowman (12 October 2022)

"But if we don't see progress in underlying inflation or core inflation, I don't see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5%, or 4.75% or something like that. We need to see actual progress in core inflation and services inflation and we are not seeing it yet."

Neel Kashkari (18 October 2022)

“In considering what might happen to alter my expectations about the path of policy, I've read some speculation recently that financial stability concerns could possibly lead the FOMC to slow rate increases or halt them earlier than expected. Let me be clear that this is not something I'm considering or believe to be a very likely development. While there has been some increased volatility and liquidity strains in financial markets lately, overall, I believe markets are operating effectively.”

Christopher Waller (6 October 2022)

“The Federal Reserve takes into account the spillovers of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and weaker demand from foreign economies into the United States, as well as in the reverse direction. We are attentive to the risk of further adverse shocks—for instance, from Russia's war against Ukraine, the pandemic, or China's zero-COVID policies.”

Vice Chair Lael Brainard (10 October 2022)