Weekly recap: All eyes on the Fed's next step

With the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting coming up next week, the interest rate outlook has come back into focus once again. 

Investors have some reason to cheer as the cut-off yield on the latest 6-month Singapore T-bill auction on 14 September rebounded to 3.73%, mirroring higher rates in the US. 

It appears that the market is expecting interest rates to stay higher for longer, with the Fed not seen to be cutting interest rates until June next year. 

This has also led to more discussions about cash management accounts and how investments into money market funds may help to generate a potentially higher return compared to savings accounts.

We share what we’d consider in choosing a cash management account, and if they are better than T-bills and fixed deposits. 

As F1 Singapore Grand Prix swings into high gear, we find out which Singapore REITs may potentially benefit from the influx of tourists.

💰 INFLATION RELIEF

What happened? 

The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% in August compared to the previous month, its biggest gain of 2023. This was driven largely by an increase in energy prices.

The core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy prices rose by 0.3%, broadly inline with market expectations.  

What does this mean?

With little surprises in the latest CPI data, investors have now assigned a 98% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 20 September. This is based on the CME FedWatch Tool as of 16 September 2023.

However, strong US economic data has led to increased expectations that the Fed may not cut interest rates soon. 

Investors are now expecting that the Fed will only start cutting interest rates in June 2024, compared to expectations a month ago that the first rate cut could come in May. 

Why should I care? 

The expectation that the Fed may not cut interest rates so quickly has helped to lift sentiment on Singapore banks, which may benefit from higher net interest margins. 

This has also helped to lift the Straits Times Index (STI), which outperformed US indices in the past week. 

Related links: 

• DBS share price and analysis

• UOB share price and analysis

• OCBC share price and analysis

💡 THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY

Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT share price at all-time low. Here's why it may be different from Manulife US REIT

Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT's share price has fallen close to 50% so far this year to reach an all-time low.

🚗 WHAT'S MOVING

• SGX implemented a new organisational structure including the appointment of a new head of its global markets division. The CEO of SGX noted that this was aimed at enabling the exchange to capitalise on “immense growth opportunities” from rising capital flows in Asia. Click here for SGX share price and analysis.
• Olam’s share price hit a 52-week low after the company confirmed a media report that its Nigerian unit posted a bond for its director to secure his continued cooperation with any legitimate requests from relevant Nigerian authorities for information or assistance.  Click here for Olam share price and analysis.
• Apple introduced its latest iPhones with four new models - the iPhone 15, 15 Plus, 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max, with a higher price tag for the top Pro Max model compared to last year’s instalment.
• Sea Limited (SE) CEO Forrest Li called for employees to prepare for a hard contest as e-commerce competitors challenge Shopee’s market share. 
• Shares of chip designer Arm Holdings rose 25% in its trading debut after raising US$4.87 billion in this year’s largest initial public offering, delivering a boost for equity markets. 

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Financial Times, Business Times, Edge Singapore

🤓 WHAT WE’RE LOOKING OUT FOR THIS WEEK

• Wednesday, 20 Sep: FOMC meeting and interest rate decision
• Thursday, 21 Sep: Bank of England interest rate decision

Source: Bloomberg, SGX 

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