Weekly Recap: T-bill yield stable despite growing confidence in Fed rate cuts

With US stocks trading at record highs, one of the questions I’ve been getting is why bother looking at the Singapore market.

Yes, I would agree that Singapore stocks are not the sexiest.

When asked, I would probably be hard pressed to find a stock that can double in a year (Tell me if you know of one).

But the Singapore market is still a good place to look for stocks which pay an attractive dividend.

If you do not know where to start, you can check out our screen of Singapore stocks with with the highest dividend yield, or REITs with the highest dividend yield. 

With the T-bill yield remaining stable in the latest auction and SSB interest rates close to historical highs, the investor appeal of some of these dividend paying stocks may have dimmed over the past year.

However, with more attractive valuations, it may worthwhile looking at Singapore stocks once again as a yield hunter.

Happy hunting!

Gerald, Founder of Beansprout

⏰ This week in markets

💰 More confidence on rate cuts

What happened? 

Investors have been looking out for signs of the interest rate direction, after the Fed indicated last week that there might be one rate cut this year. 

This was further reinforced by weakness in the latest US retail sales data, which led investors to gain confidence that the Fed might be able to cut rates this year. 

What does this mean?

According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, investors expect the first rate cut to be in September this year. 

This may be followed by another rate cut in December, with the two potential rate cuts bringing the Fed funds rate down by 0.50% (50 basis points) in total. 

Why should I care? 

US government bond yields continued to decline with rising confidence of rate cuts this year. The US 10-year government bond yield fell to close to the lows in March this year. 

However, the best USD fixed deposit rates in Singapore remain high, with the highest 3-month fixed deposit rate at 5.4% p.a.

Singapore REITs had a mixed performance despite the lower US government bond yields, with gains led by Digital Core REIT (+10.2%), Paragon REIT (+3.6%) and Lendlease REIT (+2.7%). 

On the other hand, some REITs with hospitality exposure continued to face declines, with Frasers Hospitality Trust (-3.4%) and OUE REIT (-1.9%) closing lower this week. 

🚗  MOVNG THIS WEEK

• Singtel will subscribe for S$400 million worth of 6.5% redeemable non-voting preference shares (RPS) and detachable warrants of data centre provider ST Telemedia GDC. The warrants are exercisable into 4.2% of STT GDC’s issued share capital for S$284 million. Singtel is also tying up with Telekom Malaysia to develop data centres in Johor.
• MAS and CAD are conducting a joint investigation into offences potentially committed by Seatrium and/or its officers in connection with Operation Car Wash. The authorities have requested for further information from the company.
• OCBC is maintaining its offer price for Great Eastern at S$25.60. The independent financial advisor (IFA) to the independent directors opined that the offer price is not fair but reasonable. The offer will close on 12 July. 
• SIA’s May passenger load rose 10.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than April’s 11.9% growth. Cargo load rose 18.5% over May 2023, also lower than April’s 26.4%. 
• Singpost has appointed Merrill Lynch Markets Australia Pty Ltd to explore near term partnerships, provide equity to deleverage acquisition debt and establish an independent valuation benchmark for its Australian entities.
• Paragon REIT divested the Rail Mall for S$78.5 million cash, 26.6% above end-Dec 23 valuation of S$62 million.

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Business Times, Edge Singapore

💡 THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY

T-bill yield remains steady at 3.74%. Here’s why it has stayed high

The cut-off yield on the latest 6-month Singapore T-bill auction on 20 June was stable at 3.74%.

🤓 WHAT WE’RE LOOKING OUT FOR THIS WEEK

• Tuesday, 25 June: Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) application closing date, SIAS Corporate Connect with Thakral Corp
• Thursday, 27 June: Nike earnings
• Friday, 28 June: US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data

Source: SGX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv

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