Singapore Airlines in focus: Weekly Review with SIAS

What happened?

In this week's Weekly Market Review in partnership with Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS), we discuss key developments in the global equity market alongside Singapore Airlines (SIA).

Watch the video to learn more about what we are looking out for this week.

Weekly Market Review

0:50 - Macro Update

• The S&P 500 surged 5.3% to 5,958 points, and the NASDAQ jumped 7.2% to 19,211, driven largely by tech stocks.
• Singapore’s STI rose 0.6% to near 3,900 points, lifted by improved sentiment from the US-China 90-day tariff pause.
• The tariff pause led to a rollback to 10% and 30% tariffs, easing trade policy uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.
• Earlier spikes in trade policy uncertainty during March and April have now moderated, with hopes for bilateral trade deals.
• US inflation cooled as April CPI came in at 2.3% year-on-year, easing from 2.4% in March, despite earlier tariff concerns.
• Market expectations for US rate cuts in 2025 have shifted to two cuts—one in September and one in December, down from three.

STI Top performers:

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
• Hongkong Land
• Mapletree Logistics Trust
• SATS
• Venture Corporation

STI worst performers:

• ST Engineering
• Genting Singapore
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust
• SGX
• Thai Beverage

6:28 - SIA

• SIA’s share price recovered from about $6 to $6.90 following improved sentiment after trade tensions eased and earnings were released.
• For FY2024/25 (ending March 2025), revenue grew both in the second half and full year, but expenditure rose at a faster pace, leading to weaker operating profit.
• Net profit was boosted by exceptional gains, so investors focused more on the operating profit as a measure of underlying performance.
• In Q4 FY2024/25, net profit came in at $410 million, down slightly from Q3 (typically the stronger quarter), but the decline was milder than expected.
• Revenue for Q4 was $4.8 billion, lower than Q3’s record $5.2 billion, but still marked a year-on-year increase.
• Passenger load factor remained stable at 86.4% in Q4, indicating continued healthy demand for flights.
• Cargo yield held steady at $0.35, and the cargo load factor improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year.
• Group expenditure increased 9.5% year-on-year for the full year and 5.2% in the second half, outpacing revenue growth and weighing on profits.
• Earnings per share (EPS) for the year was 89.3 cents, and the company declared a final dividend of 30 cents, bringing the total DPS to 40 cents.
• Based on the current share price, the dividend yield is around 5.8%, higher than the historical average of 4.7%, supporting investor confidence despite softer earnings.

Related Links:

• SIA share price history and share price target

12:49  - Technical Analysis

Straits Times Index

• STI rose 0.5% for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly gain, despite pulling back from a high of 3,956 to end around 3,880 due to fading optimism.
• The initial spike was driven by positive US-China trade talks, which resulted in a 90-day tariff break, but momentum weakened as the week progressed.
• STI broke above its 100-day moving average at 3,829, with the next resistance levels at 3,927 (Bollinger Band), 3,949 (mini double top), and 4,005 (all-time high).
• MACD remains on an upward trajectory, indicating positive momentum, but the pace of gains has slowed compared to the sharp rebound in April.
• The RSI dropped to 58 from 61, showing declining momentum and confirming the MACD’s weakening strength.
• With the US CPI remaining stable and Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating, STI is expected to trade range-bound between 3,927 and 3,751 in the near term.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 

• The Dow Jones Index rose 3% for the week and closed above its 200-day moving average, indicating reduced near-term trade tariff uncertainty.
• The index is currently at 42,654 points, with the next resistance levels at 43,133 (Bollinger Band upper bound) and 43,325 (late December high).
• If momentum continues, the index could target the November high of 44,486 points, with support seen at the January low of 41,844 points.
• A potential bullish crossover is forming as the 20-day moving average nears the 50-day, signaling short-term upward momentum.
• The MACD indicator remains in a strong uptrend, showing continued momentum from April despite the US credit rating downgrade over the weekend.
• RSI is at 63, indicating there’s still upside room before reaching the overbought level at 70.

S&P 500 Index

• The S&P 500 rose to 5,958 points, crossing above its 200-day moving average and moving closer to the psychological 6,000 level.
• The index is now within range of its all-time high of 6,147 points, set in February, signaling a strong recovery from April's tariff-driven sell-off.
• The MACD indicator remains in an uptrend, suggesting continued momentum, though gains have slightly weakened in the past two sessions.
• The RSI is at 69, nearing the overbought threshold of 70, which could lead to consolidation or short-term selling pressure.
• The year-to-date performance has turned positive, indicating the market has largely shaken off earlier trade-related fears.
• If 6,000 is breached, the next technical target is 6,001, with expectations for sideways consolidation if RSI crosses into overbought territory.

NASDAQ Composite Index

• The NASDAQ Composite Index surged to 19,211 points, making it the strongest rebounder among major indices following the tariff reprieve.
• The next resistance level is around 19,318 points (November high), with the Bollinger Band upper bound at 19,578 points serving as a potential cap.
• The MACD indicator remains positive, indicating the uptrend is intact, though momentum has started to fade in the last two trading sessions.
• If the index hits the 19,578 level, it may face profit-taking or selling pressure from technical traders.
• The RSI has reached the overbought level of 70, suggesting limited upside and potential for a near-term pullback.
• While the NASDAQ has historically pushed beyond 70 RSI (up to 80), current conditions call for caution and possible consolidation around resistance levels.

What to look out for this week

• Tuesday, 20 May: ST Engineering ex-dividend
• Thursday, 22 May: , Singtel earnings, 6-month Singapore T-bill auction
• Friday, 23 May: SATS earnings

Get the full list of stocks with upcoming dividends here. 

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