CICT and Frasers Centrepoint Trust in focus: Weekly Review with SIAS

What happened?

In this week's Weekly Market Review in partnership with Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS), we discuss key developments in the global equity market and also share more about CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Frasers Centrepoint Trust 

Watch the video to learn more about what we are looking out  for this week.

Weekly Market Review

1:47 - Macro Update

• The S&P 500 declined 2.3% for the week, nearing a 10% pullback from its recent peak, with broad-based selling across tech and industrial stocks weighing on the US market.
• While the STI had been outperforming, last week's selloff caught up with Singapore’s market, dropping 2% to close at 3,836 points on Friday.
• The US CPI data came in at 2.8%, slightly below expectations, yet markets still sold off.
• Consumer sentiment has weakened significantly largely driven by uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs
• Additionally, a significant spike in five-year inflation expectations, currently at its highest level in five years, has fuelled concerns over a potential US economic slowdown or even a recession. 

4:30 Singapore market updates

STI Top performers:

• Jardine Matheson
• Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust
• DFI Retail Group
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust
• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

STI worst performers:

• Sembcorp Industries
• UOB
• Yangzijiang
• OCBC
• DBS

5:48 - CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 

• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) has rebounded sharply over the past two weeks, rising from below $2 to $2.13 per share, nearing its September 2024 levels.
• In 2024, its DPU increased slightly from 10.75 cents to 10.88 cents, making it one of the few REITs to see growth.
• With 95% of its portfolio in Singapore, CICT has been resilient against regional currency fluctuations, boasting a diversified mix of retail, office, and hospitality assets.
• Portfolio occupancy improved to 96.7% in December 2024, with both retail and office segments seeing gains.
• Retail tenant sales and shopper traffic rose by 3.4% and 8.7%, respectively, aided by the Ion Orchard acquisition.
• Positive rental reversions across suburban and downtown malls drove a 8.8% rental reversion for the retail segment, while Singapore office rents increased to $10.73 per square foot from $10.49 in 2023.
• CICT's balance sheet remains strong with a 38.5% leverage ratio and a 3.1x interest coverage ratio.
• CICT's dividend yield of 5.2% is near its historical average

Related Links:

• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust share price history and share price target
• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial dividend history and dividend forecasts

10:30 - Frasers Centrepoint Trust 

• Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) with full exposure to Singapore’s suburban malls, saw a recent rebound in its share price but remains below September 2024 levels. Its portfolio consists of nine malls catering to high-footfall residential areas.
• In FY2024, gross revenue and net property income declined due to the divestment of Changi City Point and ongoing asset enhancements at Tampines One, though underlying revenue from remaining assets improved.
• Distributions to unitholders rose by 3.2%, while DPU declined slightly by 0.9% to 12.042 cents, contrasting with CICT’s increase.
• Occupancy remains high at 99.5%, though slightly lower than in early 2024.
• Shopper traffic and tenant sales also continued to grow.
• Retail rents across both suburban and downtown malls also grew, helping to lift the overall rents for retail space in the Singapore market.
• With limited new supply, the retail rents are expected to experience further rental growth.
• FCT’s balance sheet remains solid, with a leverage ratio of 39.3% and an interest coverage ratio of 3.3x.
• Its price-to-book ratio of 1.0x is above the historical average, while its 5.4% dividend yield is comparable to CICT’s.

Related Links:

• Frasers Centrepoint Trust share price history and share price target
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust history and dividend forecasts

16:00 - Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

• The Dow Jones Index recently breached its 200-day moving average, signaling potential weakness.
• It experienced a near 10% drawdown from its January and December peaks but avoided official correction territory with a 1.65% rebound on Friday.
• The 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day and 100-day, indicating short-term weakness, while the MACD shows signs of downward momentum easing.
• The RSI dipped below the oversold 30 level last Thursday before rebounding to 35, suggesting a potential technical rebound.
• A convincing close above the 200-day moving average could sustain last year’s rally, but failure to do so may push the index toward 38,700 to 39,000 points.
• Resistance lies around 43,400 points, with support at 42,000 or 41,900.
• The upcoming FOMC decision will likely influence the index’s range-bound movement in the coming weeks.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

• The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory on Thursday, falling 10.5% from its February 19 peak before rebounding 2% up 117 points on Friday.
• Technical indicators suggest a potential short-term recovery, with the MACD showing easing downward momentum and the RSI rebounding from oversold levels to 37.
• The index currently sits below its 200-day moving average at 5,740, needing a 100-point gain to reclaim it.
• Resistance is expected at the 50-day and 100-day moving averages around 5,942 points. In the coming weeks, the S&P 500 is likely to trade within this range, finding support near the 200-day moving average and resistance at the 5,942 level.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

• The Nasdaq Composite Index rebounded 2.61% of  450 points on Friday after a 14.68% decline from its December peak, placing it firmly in correction territory .
• Major tech stocks, including NVIDIA up 5%, Tesla up 4%, and Meta up 3%, showed signs of recovery.
• The RSI indicated oversold conditions earlier in the week before rebounding, while the MACD suggests weakening downward momentum.
• A sustained rally requires the Nasdaq to move above its 200-day moving average, with key resistance at the 100-day and 50-day moving averages around 19,200 points.
• In the coming weeks, the index is expected to trade between the 18,500 and 19,200 levels.

STI Technical Analysis

• The STI Index experienced a gap down last Tuesday and then entered a range-bound formation, with bank stocks facing pressure.
• This pullback presents an opportunity for dividend investors, with attractive dividend yields around 5%, similar to REITs.
• After reaching a high of 3,951 points in February, the index has seen a pullback, though it remains relatively stable compared to US indices.
• The MACD indicates subsiding downside momentum, and the RSI is close to the neutral 50-point mark, suggesting no strong momentum.
• The STI is expected to trade in a range, with support at the 100-day moving average of 3,788 and resistance near the February high of 3,951 points.

What to look out for this week

• Monday, 17 March: Sasseur REIT ex-dividend
• Wednesday, 19 March: US FOMC Meeting
• Thursday, 20 March: Jardine Matheson, DFI Retail Group, Hongkong Land ex-dividend
• Friday, 21 March: NIO earnings 

Get the full list of stocks with upcoming dividends here. 

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