CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) in focus: Weekly Review with SIAS

What happened?

In this week's Weekly Market Review in partnership with Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS), we discuss key developments in the global equity market alongside CICT.

Watch the video to learn more about what we are looking out for this week.

Weekly Market Review

1:53 - Macro Update

• Markets ended the week mixed, S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, Nasdaq rose 0.2%, while Singapore's STI fell 0.7%.
• The Fed held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting and signaled two potential cuts in 2025, likely in September and December.
• Diverging views within the Fed and geopolitical risks, such as Middle East tensions, are creating uncertainty around future rate directions.
• US 10-year and 1-year bond yields remain elevated (~4.4% and ~4% respectively), while Singapore's 1-year bond yield has dropped below 2%, reflecting safe-haven demand.
• Oil prices spiked following US strikes on Iran, adding to market volatility over the weekend.
• Singapore REITs outperformed due to falling bond yields and flight to safety, while Thai Beverage and Wilmar underperformed due to political and regulatory concerns.

STI Top performers:

• Mapletree Logistics Trust
• Keppel Corporation
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust
• Jardine Cycle & Carriage
• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

STI worst performers:

• DFI Retail Group
• City Developments
• Venture Corporation
• Wilmar International
• Thai Beverage

6:20 - CICT

• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) rose from $2.05 to $2.17 in the past month, supported by its reputation as a defensive name amid macro uncertainty.
• CICT has a well-diversified portfolio across suburban retail, downtown retail, and CBD offices, with 95% of assets based in Singapore.
• It is the largest REIT in Singapore by market cap ($16B) and asset value ($26B), maintaining high occupancy rates across retail (99%), office (95%), and integrated assets.
• Retail performance remained strong in FY2024, with tenant sales up 3.4%, shopper traffic up 9%, and positive rent reversions of 9%, supported by the Ion Orchard acquisition.
• CICT’s Singapore office portfolio remains resilient with a high occupancy rate of 97.6% and rising average rents over the past four quarters.
• Balance sheet remains solid with 38.7% aggregate leverage, 3.2x interest coverage ratio, and lower borrowing cost at 3.4% as of March 2025.
• Despite sector headwinds, CICT grew its distribution per unit to 10.88 cents in 2024 (5% yield)
• Its price-to-book ratio stands at 1.02x, close to its historical average.

Related Links:

• CICT share price history and share price target
• CICT dividend yield and dividend forecasts

14:15  - Technical Analysis

Straits Times Index

• STI fell about 0.5% early in the week due to heightened Middle East tensions, mirroring declines across Asian markets.
• The index dropped below the lower Bollinger Band to a low of 3,845 points, currently testing support at the 50-day moving average.
• Key support levels are 3,845 (50-day MA) and 3,771 (200-day MA) if tensions escalate further.
• Technical indicators are bearish — MACD is negative and trending downward, while RSI has fallen to 41, suggesting potential further downside.
• Investors are advised to be cautious as the STI may continue pulling back in the near term amid geopolitical risks.
• Despite short-term weakness, falling interest rates and safe-haven demand could present buying opportunities in high-quality names. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average 

• Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but growing divergence among officials suggests fewer rate cuts, likely delaying the first cut to September.
• Market sentiment turned negative midweek due to escalating geopolitical risks, including potential US strikes on Tehran.
• The Dow Jones Index pulled back in the last three trading days after starting the week strong.
• Technical indicators are bearish, MACD is negative, and the index is heading toward the lower Bollinger Band and 50-day MA at 41,50 - 41,600.
• RSI is at the neutral 50-point level and expected to dip below, potentially heading toward the oversold zone, indicating more downside ahead.
• Investors can consider waiting for further declines toward support levels before accumulating, similar to the opportunity seen in early April.

S&P 500 

• The S&P 500 is more sensitive to Iran tensions due to its broader market exposure; concerns stem from Iran potentially disrupting 20% of global oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz.
• Rising oil prices and US tariffs may drive inflation higher, delaying expected Fed rate cuts and weighing on market sentiment.
• The index is currently holding support at the 20-day moving average (5957), with stronger support seen at the 200-day MA (5814), which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and 100-day MA.
• A rebound at the 5800 level could form a double bottom pattern, a bullish technical signal for a potential reversal.
• MACD remains negative, suggesting continued near-term downside for the index.
• RSI has dropped from 67 to 55 and is expected to hit the 50-point neutral level, indicating further short-term weakness ahead.

Nasdaq Composite Index

• The NASDAQ managed a slight gain last week but dropped ~0.5% on Friday, reflecting ongoing market anxiety.
• The index is currently resting on its 20-day moving average, with key support levels at the 50-day MA (18,336), lower Bollinger Band (18,851), and 200-day MA (18,594).
• Given its volatility, investors are advised to be cautious and watch the 50-day MA as a crucial support for potential accumulation.
• MACD remains negative, indicating likely continued downside for the week ahead.
• RSI has declined from 66 to 57, and could dip toward the neutral 50 level, a potential point for stabilization.

What to look out for this week

• Wednesday, 25 Jun: SSB application closing date
• Friday, 27 Jun: University of Michigan consumer data

Get the full list of stocks with upcoming dividends here. 

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