Weekly Recap: SIA reports record earnings while fixed deposit rates rebound

At our webinar on income investing this week, there were many questions on what makes a good dividend stock.

I shared that there were 3 things I would consider – whether the dividends were sustainable, and whether the company’s earnings were improving and recurring.

Interestingly, we saw a related discussion in the Beansprout community this week on why did Singapore Airlines' (SIA) share price fall despite its record net profit and dividend hike.

After all, at the headline level, the stock appears to offer a seemingly attractive dividend yield of 7.0%.

In our analysis of SIA’s latest results, we share why there may be concerns about the sustainability of the company’s record earnings with its passenger yields declining. 

Outside of SIA, we also saw large movements in the Singapore market this week following the announcement that five stocks – Seatrium, City Developments, Jardine C&C, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial REIT will be excluded from the MSCI Singapore Index. 

We analyse how the index removal may impact these stocks, and if the share price decline may present a buying opportunity.

With falling bond yields, we find out if it might still be worthwhile applying for the upcoming 6-month Singapore T-bill on 23 May.

Lastly, if you are looking to put your savings into fixed deposit, the good news is that the best 3-month fixed deposit rate has been raised to 3.5% p.a.

Happy growing!

Gerald, Founder of Beansprout

❄️ INFLATION COOLS

What happened? 

The US consumer price index rose by 3.4% year-on-year in April, easing from the 3.5% increase in March. 

Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose by 3.6% year-on-year, the slowest pace of increase since April 2021. 

What does this mean?

The cooler than expected inflation data revived investor hopes that the Fed may be able to cut interest rates in the coming months.

According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability that the Fed would start on its interest rates cuts in September rose to 65% from 60% a week ago.

US bond yields also declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 4.4% from 4.5% at the start of the week. 

Why should I care? 

The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones reached a record high briefly following the cooler inflation data on rising rate cut expectations. 

Singapore REITs bounced with lower bond yields, with gains led by Keppel DC REIT, AIMS APAC REIT and Lendlease REIT. 

🚗  MOVING THIS WEEK

• Singapore Airlines reported record net profit of S$2.7 billion for FY24, driven by higher passenger revenue. However, FY4Q24 net profit was 4.5% lower year-on-year as yields normalised while costs escalated. SIA declared a final dividend of 38 cents and the redemption of the remaining mandatory convertible bonds at 12.6% above principal value. Read our analysis here. 
• Seatrium, City Developments, Jardine C&C, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial REIT will be removed from the MSCI Singapore Index from 1 June 2024. As at 30 April 2024, there were 21 constituents in the MSCI Singapore Index. With the removal of the five stocks, the number of constituents on this index will be reduced to 16. Read our analysis here. 
• ComfortDelgro reported a net profit of S$40.6 million for the first quarter, an increase of 23.8% compared to the previous year. This higher profit was driven by broad-based improvement in revenue across its public transport and taxi businesses. 
• Starhub reported a net profit of S$40.1 million for the first quarter of 2024, a 8.1% increase year-on-year. The higher profit was driven by a higher share of profits from joint ventures and associates and lower finance costs.
• Genting Singapore reported earnings of $247.4 million for the first quarter of 2024, a 92% increase year-on-year. Its gaming revenue surged 69% due to “notable benefits” from the higher visitorship during the Chinese New Year festival season, as well as relaxation of visa regulations between China and Singapore. 

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Business Times, Edge Singapore

💡 THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY

Will the T-bill yield fall further in the auction on 23 May?

The closing yield on the 6-month Singapore T-bill remains at 3.7% even though US bond yields have fallen.

🤓 WHAT WE’RE LOOKING OUT FOR THIS WEEK

• Wednesday, 22 May: Singapore Public Holiday, Nvidia earnings

• Thursday, 23 May: Singapore GDP data, Singtel earnings, Singapore 6-month T-bill auction

Source: SGX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv

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