Mapletree Logistics Trust and MPACT in focus: Weekly Review with SIAS

What happened?

In this week's Weekly Market Review in partnership with Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS), we discuss key developments in the global equity market and also share more about Mapletree Logistics Trust and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust.

Watch the video to learn more about what we are looking out  for this week.

Weekly Market Review

2:03 - Macro Update

• The S&P 500 reached an all time high, above the 5,800 level. Nasdaq and the Dow Jones saw gains of 1.1% and 1.2% respectively.

• The STI closed at 3,574 and fell by 0.4%.

• US core inflation rate was higher than expected and rose by 3.3% in September, higher than in August.
• US interest rate cut expectations have moderated. There is a very high probability that investors are assigning towards the Fed just cutting interest rates by 0.25% in each of the upcoming meetings. 
•  The US 10-year government bond yield has rebounded fairly sharply in the last one month. It reached close to 3.6% in September, ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, but since then there has been a bounce to 4.1% currently.
• China-related stocks corrected, driven by some disappointment investors had on further stimulus measures announced. 

7:09 - Singapore market updates

STI Top performers:

• Seatrium
• DBS
• Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd
• OCBC
• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd

STI worst performers:

• SATS Ltd
• Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust
• Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited
• City Developments
• Mapletree Logistics Trust

8:17 - Mapletree Logistics Trust

• Share price recovered from $1.25 to $1.50 after the US Fed rate cut, followed by a slight pullback in the past week.
• 19% of its assets are in Singapore, 40% in China and Hong Kong combined. Concerns about China's economy impacted sentiment, but improved outlook led to a price rebound.
• The occupancy rate for China is at 93.1% (June 2024), the lowest among its markets. Hong Kong is at 95.6%, Japan at 98.7% and Singapore at 95.8%.
• Rental reversions were -11% in China vs +2.6%  for the overall portfolio.
• Distribution per unit (DPU) down 9% due to higher finance costs and lower net property income.
• Price-to-book valuation at 1.03x, below historical and sector averages. Dividend yield at 6.3%, above historical and sector averages.

Read our article discussing REITs with dividend yields above 6%.

Related Links:

• Mapletree Logistics Trust share price history and share price target
• Mapletree Logistics Trust dividend history and dividend forecasts

10:38 - Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust

• Similar trajectory to MLT, with a rebound after the Fed rate cut and improved sentiment toward China, followed by a recent pullback.
• 21% of gross revenue comes from Hong Kong and 9% from China
• China properties are at 88% occupancy, the lowest in the portfolio. Overall portfolio occupancy is 94% (June 2024), with near 100% occupancy for key properties like VivoCity in Singapore and Festival Walk in Hong Kong.
• Negative rental reversions in China (-1.3%) and Festival Walk in Hong Kong (-5%), dragging overall performance.
• Distribution per unit (DPU) down 4.1% to 2.09 cents due to lower gross revenue and higher finance costs.
• Price-to-book valuation at 0.8x, below historical and sector averages. Dividend yield at 6.2%, above historical and sector averages. 
• Investors are watching how the Chinese stimulus and interest rate expectations will impact the REIT’s share price.

Read our article discussing REITs with dividend yields above 6%.

Related Links:

• Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust share price history and share price target
• Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust dividend history and dividend forecasts

16:31 - Technical Analysis

STI Technical Analysis

• The STI is up 0.4%, hovering around 3,588 points.

• The MACD indicator has a negative reading and has been on a downtrend since the beginning of October, thus the downtrend will likely continue.

• The RSI also had a retracement, now reading at 57, 7 points away from the neutral mark.

• The STI support is at 3,500, resistance at 3,650 points, which is the six-year high or the year-to-date high. 

Hang Seng Index

• The Hang Seng Index is trading around 20,860 points right now and is facing a lot more pressure due to the negative sentiment regarding the Chinese stimulus measures.
• The MACD indicator is starting to cross the signal line and if a crossover happens, it signifies the confirmation of a downtrend formation, thereby the MACD reading will go into the negative reading. 

• The RSI hit the overbought level of 70, it reached a high of somewhere in the 90 point region on the early part of October, and have now retraced back to the 58 points level. 

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

• The Dow Jones index hit a new all-time high, driven in part by hot CPI data, though the market is now shifting focus toward the overall health of the US economy. 
• The MACD remains positive, but the RSI is approaching the overbought level, suggesting caution is warranted.
• A more favourable entry point will be around the support levels of the 20-day moving average at 42,123 points and the 50-day exponential moving average near 41,497 points.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

• The S&P500 closed at 5,815 points, reaching a new all-time high and a new all-time close.
• The MACD indicator still has some positive reading and the RSI is also close to the 70 point overboard mark.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

• The NASDAQ Composite Index has lagged behind the Dow Jones and S&P 500, given the high valuations of tech stocks.
• The all-time high for the NASDAQ Composite is 18,671 points, a key resistance level to watch.
• The MACD indicator remains positive, suggesting room for further growth, and the RSI is at 62, leaving space before reaching the 70-point overbought mark.

What to look out for this week

• Monday, 14 Oct: Singapore GDP data
• Tuesday, 15 Oct: Citi earnings
• Wednesday, 16 Oct: Morgan Stanley earnings
• Thursday, 17 Oct: Singapore 1-year T-bill auction, Netflix earnings
• Friday, 18 Oct: Keppel DC REIT earnings

Get the full list of Singapore stocks, REITs and ETFs with upcoming dividend payments with our dividend calendar.

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