CICT and Mapletree Industrial Trust in focus: Weekly Review with SIAS

What happened?

In this week's Weekly Market Review in partnership with Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS), we discuss key developments in the global equity market and also share more about CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT).

Watch the video to learn more about what we are looking out  for this week.

Weekly Market Review

1:59 - Macro Update

• Last week, global markets displayed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.5%, and the Dow Jones dropping 0.6%.
• The STI, however, gained 0.8%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic growth.
• Singapore's GDP grew by 4% in 2024, surpassing forecasts and marking the highest growth since 2021.
• Momentum improved in the second half of 2024, although growth is expected to moderate to 1–3% in 2025 due to global risks, including potential U.S. policy shifts.
• STI gains were supported by higher oil prices, which boosted sentiment for oil and gas stocks, while REITs showed modest recovery despite challenges from elevated bond yields.
• Interest rate dynamics remain critical, with the U.S. and Singapore 10-year bond yields rising post-rate cuts, dampening REIT sentiment.
• However, falling short-term rates could lower borrowing costs for REITs, potentially stabilizing their prices in 2025.

4:56 Singapore market updates

STI Top performers:

• Seatrium
• Thai Beverage
• CapitaLand Investment
• CapitaLand Ascendas REIT
• Mapletree Logistics Trust

STI worst performers:

• Jardine Matheson Holdings
• Venture Corporation
• Singtel
• SIA
• SGX

10:58 - CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

• Capital Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) has shown price movements similar to the broader REIT ETF, with a bounce leading into the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, followed by a slight correction due to rising 10-year government bond yields in Singapore.
• Its distributions, which declined during COVID-19, have steadily rebounded in recent years and are expected to increase further in 2024, offering an attractive dividend yield of 5.6%.
• This yield is above CICT’s historical average, reflecting the recovery in distributions.
• In terms of valuation, CICT is trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.92x, which is slightly above its historical average but still below the sector average of 1.1x. 

Related Links:

• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust share price history and share price target
• CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust dividend history and dividend forecasts

11:53 - Mapletree Industrial Trust

• Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) has shown share price movements that align closely with CICT, underlining the significant influence of interest rate trends on REIT performance.
• While MIT’s distributions have been more volatile than CICT's, a slight recovery is anticipated in the coming year, potentially raising its dividend yield to around 5.7%.
• Currently, MIT's price-to-book ratio stands at 1.3x, which is above its historical average, indicating a premium valuation compared to its past levels.

Related Links:

• Mapletree Industrial Trust share price history and share price target
• Mapletree Industrial Trust dividend history and dividend forecasts

15:06 - Technical Analysis

STI Technical Analysis

• The Straits Times Index (STI) has been on a notable short-term uptrend, gaining 0.8% this past week and 1.39% in the final week of December.
• The MACD is showing signs of convergence, with a potential bullish crossover expected soon, which could confirm a new uptrend.
• The RSI is at 60, indicating healthy momentum with room to rise before reaching overbought levels at 70.
• Overall, the STI shows strong momentum heading into 2025, and the 20-day and 50-day moving averages present opportunities for accumulation.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

• The Dow Jones Index dropped by 0.6% last week.
• The MACD remains negative but has shown signs of improvement, with the gap between the MACD line and signal line narrowing, indicating a potential uptrend once convergence occurs.
• The RSI recently recovered from oversold levels of 29 in mid-December to 41, slightly below the neutral 50 mark but showing positive momentum after crossing above its 14-day moving average.
• A rise above 50 in the RSI could signal renewed strength, paving the way for a rebound from the 100-day moving average toward the 45,000 resistance level.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

• The S&P 500 showed strength on Friday, buoyed by strong U.S. economic data.
• Technically, the S&P 500 remains in a downtrend, with the MACD indicating persistent negative momentum and no imminent crossover to signal an uptrend.
• The RSI at 47 is below its 14-day moving average of 48 and the neutral 50 mark, reflecting weak momentum.
• While a sustained rebound is unlikely without a new catalyst, such as the upcoming non-farm payroll data, accumulation opportunities may arise at the lower Bollinger Band near 5,835 points and the 100-day moving average at 5,800 points.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

• The  NASDAQ Composite Index showed resilience on Friday, driven by strong performance in the consumer discretionary and tech sectors. Key contributors included NVIDIA, up 4.7%, and Supermicro Computer, which surged 10.9%.
• The MACD continues to indicate negative momentum, suggesting that a significant rebound may not occur immediately.
• However, the RSI at 52, slightly above the neutral 50 mark, indicates emerging positive momentum, potentially smoothing out near the 14-day moving average at 55.
• While a major rally depends on a MACD confirmation, the NASDAQ Composite appears poised for gradual improvement, supported by its robust sectoral performance and strong technical levels.

What to look out for this week

• Thursday, 9 Jan: US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
• Friday, 10 Jan: US Employment Data

Check out the full list of Singapore stocks, REITs and ETFs with upcoming dividend payments with our dividend calendar.

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