Weekly recap: T-bill yield jumps and stocks slide on rising uncertainty

It seems that many investors are seeking refuge in safe assets once again.

Most of the questions and discussion I observed in the Beansprout community this week revolved around lower-risk assets such as gold or T-bills. 

After all, concerns of rising geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation are coming back. 

Not surprisingly, the cut-off yield of the 1-year Singapore T-bill rebounded to 3.58% in the latest auction this week despite the fall in fixed deposit rates. 

With rising government bond yields, we find out what this may mean for the upcoming 6-month Singapore T-bill auction on 25 April. 

On the other hand, the potential delay in interest rates cuts has led to dampened sentiment on Singapore REITs, with many REITs falling to 1-year lows.

With Keppel DC REIT reporting a further decline in its dividends in its latest operational update, we analyse if the worst may be over for the datacentre REIT. 

CapitaLand Ascott Trust was one of the few Singapore REITs that raised its dividends in 2023 despite sector headwinds. We explore if the recovery can be sustained. 

With the earnings season going into full swing, I will be looking out closely for the upcoming earnings of large cap tech stocks such as Tesla and Meta this week to get an indication of where the markets are headed next. 

To help you navigate the uncertain interest rate environment, we will be hosting a free webinar on Singapore REITs on 24^th April where I will discuss what may lie ahead for REITs.

See you on Wednesday!

Gerald, Founder of Beansprout

🛢 HEIGHTENED GEOPOLITICAL TENSION DRIVES SELL-OFF

What happened? 

Geopolitical tensions escalated after it was reported that Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran, according to US officials. 

This follows a period of rising tensions between the two countries, since the Israel-Hamas conflict in October last year. 

What does this mean?

The Middle East tensions come amidst concerns of persistent inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer. 

US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell indicated that “a lack of further progress” on inflation means that the Central Bank’s interest rate cuts may come later than expected. 

Why should I care? 

US stocks declined with losses led by tech stocks, as the Nasdaq 100 posted its largest weekly loss since 2022. Nvidia and Netflix fell by 10% and 9%, respectively, on Friday. 

US bond yields jumped, with the 2-year government bond yield rising to close to 5% from 4.6% at the start of April. 

Investors flocked to safe haven assets, driving the price of gold to close to US$2,400/oz.

Learn more about how gold ETFs can allow you to gain exposure to rising gold prices. 

🚗  MOVING THIS WEEK

• Seatrium has been ordered to pay US$108 million to MHWirth following arbitration proceedings that centred on four separate contracts for the supply of equipment. Seatrium noted that the US$108 million is within the provision that the company has made in prior years. 
• Singapore Airlines’ passenger load factor fell by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 87.7% in March. However, cargo loads rose by 15.6% year-on-year due to increased inventory flows by shippers as well as charters for various entertainment events. 
• City Developments sold 65 units at The Residences at W Sentosa Cove at an average selling price of S$1,780 per square foot in a week after putting them on the market on 9 April. Separately, City Developments has put up Delfi Orchard, a 40-year old strata titled building on Orchard Road for collective sale at a S$438 million guide price.
• Keppel believes it is on track to achieve its target of $200 billion of funds under management by the end of 2030, as the dealmaking and fundraising environment is expected to improve this year.
• Tesla is slashing its headcount by more than 10% employees in a global retrenchment with slowing demand for electric vehicles. Tesla had 140,473 employees globally as of December 2023. 

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Business Times, Edge Singapore

💡 THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY

Will the T-bill yield rebound in the auction on 25 April?

The closing yield on the 6-month Singapore T-bill has remained at 3.75% despite the jump in US government bond yields.

🤓 WHAT WE’RE LOOKING OUT FOR THIS WEEK

• Monday, 22 April: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT earnings, DBS ex-Bonus date
• Tuesday, 23 April: Keppel REIT earnings, Tesla earnings
• Wednesday, 24 April: CapitaLand Ascott Trust, Digital Core REIT, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust earnings, Meta earnings, Beansprout exclusive webinar: What's next for Singapore REITs?
• Thursday, 25 April: Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Keppel, IFAST, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Suntec REIT earnings, Microsoft, Alphabet earnings, Singapore 6-month T-bill auction
• Friday, 26 April: CapitaLand Investment earnings 

Get the full list of Singapore stocks, REITs and ETFs with upcoming dividend payments with our dividend calendar.

Source: SGX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv

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