Singapore Property Sector - Upward trend in residential prices and volume

Private residential prices rose 1.2% in 3rd Quarter 2025

Private residential price index rose 1.2% Quarter-On-Quarter (QoQ) in 3Q25, representing a marginal  pick-up from the 1.0% QoQ increase in 2Q25. 

On a Year-On-Year (YoY) basis, private residential prices rose 5.4% in 3Q25. 

This quarter’s private residential price increases were led by both landed and non-landed properties which rose 1.4% QoQ and 1.1% QoQ, respectively.  

This is a reversal from the trend in 2Q25 where prices were led by landed properties. 

The QoQ increase in HDB resale prices continued to ease, with 3Q25 prices up 0.4% QoQ, the smallest quarterly price increase since 2Q20. 

On a YoY basis, HDB resale prices have continued to outpace that of private residential prices, with a 5.6% YoY increase. 

HDB resale volume was 7,157 in 3Q25, -10.9% YoY.  

In October 2025, HDB will launch the final sales exercise for the year, offering more than 9,000 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats in Ang Mo Kio, Bedok, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Jurong East, Sengkang, Toa Payoh and Yishun. This includes HDB’s fifth Community Care Apartment (CCA) project in Sengkang.

Across the private residential non-landed subsegments, 3Q25 prices were led by a standout performance at the Core Central Region (CCR) with a 2.4% increase, followed by Outside Central Region (OCR) at 1.0% QoQ and the Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw a 0.4% QoQ increase. 

The moderation in the RCR was likely due to pricing at new launches like Lyndenwoods (336 units sold at a median price of $2,462 psf).  

On the other hand, volume and prices in CCR were driven by three key projects which sold total of 835 units – Robertson Opus (169 units sold at $3,356), Upperhouse at Orchard Boulevard (202 units sold at $3,304) and River Green (464 units sold at $3,120). CCR recorded overall new home sales of 900 units in 3Q 2025, the highest quarterly CCR sales since 4Q 2010. 

Robust price and volume increase   

Despite record high launches in the city region, prices of non-landed properties in the CCR continued to climb steadily, increased by 2.4% QoQ in 3Q25, compared to 3.0% QoQ in 2Q25.  

In the RCR and OCR segments, price increases at a more measured pace, +0.4% QoQ and +1.0% QoQ, respectively. 

Recovering from a cautious sentiment in 2Q25 amid US-Liberation Day and Middle East tensions, there was a significant pick up in new launches in 3Q25. 

There were nine new private residential projects launched in 3Q25, compared to five major private residential projects launched in 2Q25.

We saw resilient demand in most of the new projects launched in 3Q25. In the RCR segment, CapitaLand’s LyndenWoods, 336 units were sold at an ASP of $2,462psf, representing a take-up rate of more than 97%. In CCR segment, Frasers’ The Robertson Opus, and UOL’s UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard sold 169 out of 348 units (49% take-up) and 202 out of 301 units (67% take-up) during the quarter, respectively. 

In 4Q 2025, the highlight remains in the CCR sub-segment.  The new launches include Skye at Holland (CCR), Penrith (RCR), Faber Residence (OCR), and Zyon Grand (RCR).   

Driven by the pick-up in new launches in 3Q25, primary sales rose to 2,639 units, an increase of 118% quarter-on-quarter. In total, there were about 4,154 units launched in 3Q25, compared to 1,520 units in 2Q25.  

Resale transaction volume was steady as well, +1% quarter-on-quarter to 3,955 units.  In total, the transaction volume till mid-September was 6,594 units, increasing 28.6% quarter-on-quarter. 

Following the robust transaction volume in 3Q2025, the year-to-date till mid-September 2025 volume reached 12,389 units. There remains a significantly strong pipeline of new launches in 4Q2025.

We believe the commendable sales and healthy take-up rates suggest that the residential market remains resilient. 

Coupled with lower interest rates, with 3-month SORA rates down by 150 basis points over the course of 2025, homebuying demand could see a significant pick-up should there be no further cooling measures introduced by the Government. 

Listed real estate brokers and developers proxies to resilient residential market

We believe the listed real estate brokers represent the most direct proxies to the resilient residential market, with earnings directly leveraged to healthy residential volume growth. 

Among the two, PropNex stands out due to its dominant market share and strong financial position, supported by a net cash balance sheet and potential upside surprise to dividends. 

Despite a strong share price re-rating YTD, PropNex and APAC Realty offer attractive dividend yields of 4.1% and 5.0% respectively, based on our estimates. 

The Singapore real estate developers continue to trade at deep discounts to NAV and offer significant value amid a broad-based re-rating in the Singapore market. 

UOL trades at 0.6x P/B with Singapore representing 86% of assets while GuocoLand trades at 0.5x P/B with Singapore at 74% of assets.  

GuocoLand has significant exposure to the Singapore residential market, concentrating on premium developments. The company also generates recurring income through its investment properties.

Related links:

• PropNex - Proxy to strong new launch momentum

• APAC Realty - Strong new launch momentum to drive profit growth

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