Weekly recap: T-bill yield and fixed deposit rates fall

The surprise this week was a sharp decline in the yield on the 1-year Singapore T-bill. 

The cut-off yield fell to 3.45% in the latest auction from 3.7% in the previous auction.

This mirrors what we have seen in the recent 6-month Singapore T-bill auction, where a surge in demand also led to lower yields. 

Likewise, the best fixed deposit rates offered by banks have also been declining, with the best 12-month fixed deposit rate now only at 3.3%. 

We find out what this may mean for the upcoming 6-month T-bill auction on 1 Feb. 

🔎 WHAT'S THE FED'S NEXT STEP?

What happened? 

Investors have moderated their expectations of interest rate cuts ahead of the first Federal Reserve meeting this year on 30-31 January.

According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, investors are largely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting.

However, investors are also assigning a higher probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the March meeting.

What does this mean?

US government bond yields have rebounded slightly as the expected timing of the first interest rate cut has been delayed.

The US 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.1%, after having fallen to below 4% late last year. 

Why should I care? 

The S&P 500 index continued to reach record highs even as interest rates moved upwards. 

However, the share price of Singapore REITs corrected as the rebound in interest rates and lower reported distributions impacted sentiment towards the sector. 

💡 THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY

Singtel's dividends are rising again. Could they grow further?

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🚗 WHAT'S MOVING

• Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) announced distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.253 cents for the quarter ending 31 December 2023, 1.2% higher than the previous year. The increase in distributable income was driven by higher contribution from existing properties in Singapore and contributions from acquisitions in Japan, South Korea and Australia. 
• Mapletree Industrial Trust reported distribution per unit (DPU) of S$0.0336 for the quarter ended 31 December 2023, 0.9% lower compared to the previous year. An increase in net property income (NPI) with the acquisition of a data centre in Japan was offset by an enlarged unit base. 
• Keppel DC REIT reported distribution per unit (DPU) of S$0.04332 for the second half of 2023, 16.1% lower compared to the previous year. The lower distributable income was driven by higher finance costs and loss allowances for the uncollected rental income from the Guangdong data centres. 
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) will acquire an additional 24.5% stake in Nex from Frasers Property for S$523.1 million, raising its effective stake in Nex to 50% on completion. FCT also announced a private placement at an issue price of S$2.18 to raise S$200 million to partially fund the acquisition. 
• Tesla’s share price fell after the company reported weaker than expected revenue and earnings. The electric vehicle maker warned of ‘notably lower’ growth as it builds its next-generation model, which won’t be ready for production until the second half of next year at the earliest.
• Alibaba’s share price surged after its co-founders Jack Ma and Joe Tsai bought more than $200 million worth of the company’s shares in recent months, according to a regulatory filing and the New York Times.

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Financial Times, Business Times, Edge Singapore

🤓 WHAT WE’RE LOOKING OUT FOR THIS WEEK

• Monday, 29 Jan: Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Ascott Trust earnings, MAS Monetary Policy Statement 
• Tuesday, 30 Jan: Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, Keppel REIT, Microsoft, Alphabet, AMD earnings
• Wednesday, 31 Jan: Keppel Infrastructure Trust, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT earnings, US Federal Reserve meeting
• Thursday, 1 Feb: Keppel Corp, SGX, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, Lendlease REIT, Digital Core REIT, Apple, Meta, Amazon earnings, Singapore 6-month T-bill auction 
• Friday, 2 Feb: Frasers Property earnings 

Source: Bloomberg, SGX 

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