UOB and OCBC in focus: Weekly Review with SIAS

What happened?  

In this week's Weekly Market Review in partnership with Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS), we discuss key developments in the global equity market alongside UOB and OCBC

Watch the video to learn more about what we are looking out for this week. 

Weekly Market Review

1:33 - Macro Update 

• The Straits Times Index (STI) pulled back by 0.5% last week to slip below the 5,000 mark. In the US, the S&P 500 declined by 0.5% to break below 6,900, largely dragged down by tech stocks as AI concerns and hot inflation data weighed on sentiment.
• Global volatility spiked over the weekend following a major coordinated military attack by the US and Israel on Iran. Unlike previous targeted strikes, this escalation reportedly resulted in the death of the Iranian leader, sparking retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region and raising fears of a broader conflict.
• In response to the geopolitical turmoil, gold spiked as a traditional safe haven. Simultaneously, oil prices which had already climbed 20% to $73 per barrel prior to the weekend attacks, surged further with the current power vacuum in Iran expected to exert continued upward pressure on global energy markets.
• The US PPI (Producer Price Index) data came in hotter than expected at a 0.5% increase, signaling that inflation remains sticky and effectively extinguishing hopes for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 16% for the week following strong full-year earnings, while Seatrium rose 11%.
• Conversely, select stocks came under heavy pressure post-earnings, with Genting Singapore dropping 11.7% and Venture falling 5%.

STI Top Performers:

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
• Seatrium
• Jardine Matheson
• Singapore Airlines
• Hongkong Land Hldgs

STI Worst Performers:

• Genting Singapore
• Venture Corporation
• Thai Beverage
• UOB
• Sembcorp Industries

 UOB (SGX: U11)

• UOB shares faced a correction after reporting a Q4 2025 net profit of $1.41 billion, representing a 7% decline year-on-year.
• The drop was primarily driven by a 4% decline in Net Interest Income (NII) as the Net Interest Margin (NIM) compressed from 2.00% down to 1.84%.
• A key bright spot was non-interest income, with fee income growing 10% YoY to $847 million, supported by strong wealth management ($203 million) and credit card fees ($321 million). However, this was not enough to prevent total income from falling by 5%.
• Investors were disappointed by a reduction in the final dividend to $0.71 (down from $0.92), bringing the full-year total to $1.81. Management guided for low single-digit loan growth and further NIM moderation to 1.75%–1.80% for FY2026.

Read also: UOB reports 7% decline in 4Q25 profit and lowers final dividend: Our Quick Take

Related Links:

• UOB Share Price and Share Price Target
• UOB forecast and dividend history

OCBC (SGX: O39)

• OCBC share price held up better than its peers, supported by resilient total income growth despite facing similar NIM compression (falling to 1.86% from 2.15%).
• The bank offset lower interest income with massive growth in non-interest income, which surged 37% YoY to $1.32 billion. This was heavily driven by wealth management fees, which jumped to $311 million.
• OCBC also improved its operational efficiency, bringing its cost-to-income ratio down to 43.1% (from 45.7%).
• The bank increased its final dividend to $0.42 and declared a $0.16 special dividend, bringing the full-year payout to $0.99. For 2026, OCBC targets stable-to-growing total income and a standard 50% payout ratio.

Read also: OCBC reports 3% rise in net profit and higher final dividend: Our Quick Take

Related Links:

• OCBC Share Price and Share Price Target
• OCBC forecast and dividend history

Technical Analysis

Straits Times Index

• The index fell aggressively on Monday morning to the 4,900 pivot level, dragged down by geopolitical fears and broad weakness in the local banking trio (DBS at $56, OCBC at $21, UOB at $36).
• Volatility and trading ranges are expected to widen significantly in the coming weeks until the US-Iran conflict sees a resolution.
• Technical indicators have turned highly bearish: the RSI broke below the 50-point neutral mark, and the MACD negative divergence is widening, signaling further near-term downside pressure.
• Immediate strong support lies at 4,800 (the late-January low), while the psychological 5,000 mark has flipped back to stiff resistance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

• The index pulled back to close at 48,977 points last Friday, hovering near the peaks established back in December.
• Momentum is notably weakening, with the RSI dipping below 50 and the MACD trending downwards for the past two weeks toward the zero baseline.
• Immediate support is located at the double-bottom formation near 48,400. If this level breaks, the index will likely consolidate around the ultimate downside support at the 48,000 handle.

S&P 500

• The broad market index remains in a range-bound consolidation phase, dropping to the 6,800–6,850 pivot zone after a midweek tech rally failed to hold against hot inflation data.
• Conflicting indicators suggest choppy trading ahead: the RSI has inched below 50 signaling weakness, but the MACD is resting on the zero baseline, hinting at minor underlying technical support.
• A test of the year-to-date low at 6,775 is highly possible, while upside resistance remains firmly capped at the 7,000 level.

Nasdaq Composite Index

• The tech-heavy index suffered the most technical damage, displaying the weakest momentum among the three major US indices with an RSI reading plunging to 43.
• While the MACD remains slightly positive, it is stuck below the zero baseline, making any near-term retracement unconvincing.
• The index is expected to test strong support around the year-to-date low of 22,200 to 22,250, which previously acted as a solid base in October.
• Immediate upside resistance rests at 23,100, with the ultimate ceiling remaining at 24,000.

What to look out for this week

• Monday, 2 March 2026: Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) applications open, Centurion Accommodation REIT ex-dividend

• Tuesday, 3 March: SIAS Corporate Connect with KORE US REIT, CapitaLand India Trust ex-dividend

• Friday, 6 March 2026: US Non Farm Payroll data, Daiwa House Logistics Trust ex-dividend

Get the full list of stocks with upcoming dividends here. 

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