Will T-bill yields rise above 1.95%? What to expect at the Singapore T-bill auction on 4 November

What happened?

The next 6-month Singapore T-bill auction (BS26122V) will take place on 4 November.

In the previous auction on 22 October, the 6-month T-bill cut-off yield rose to 1.95%, its highest level so far in 2026.

The 1-year T-bill cut-off yield also rose to 1.92% at the auction on 15 October. Together, these results raise the question of whether the upcoming 6-month T-bill yield could climb further.

I’ve also seen more discussion in the Beansprout community about whether T-bill yields will hold around current levels or continue rising.

In this article, I’ll examine the latest indicators for clues about where the upcoming cut-off yield might land.

Here's what to expect for the Singapore T-bill auction on 4 November

#1 – US 10-year government bond yields fell

The 10-year US government bond yield fell to 4.97% as of 29 October 2026, lower than its level of 5.06% two weeks ago.

This decline occurred despite stronger-than-expected US inflation data, which would typically push bond yields higher.

Instead, concerns over heavy borrowing by artificial intelligence (AI) companies and weakness in technology stocks appeared to have driven investors towards the relative safety of US government bonds.

As such, US government bond yields have moderated slightly.

You can check the latest 10-year US government bond yield here.

Meanwhile, the 1-year US government bond yield remained flat at 4.44% as of 29 October 2026, compared to 2 weeks ago.

#2 – Singapore long-term government bond yields fell

The 10-year Singapore government bond yield was at 2.30% as of 29 October 2026, also lower than 2.33% two weeks earlier.

You can check the latest 10-year Singapore government bond yield here.

However, I would pay closer attention to shorter-term Singapore yields when assessing the upcoming 6-month T-bill auction.

The closing yield on the 6-month T-bill was at 1.92% on 29 October 2026. This was slightly below the cut-off yield of 1.95% in the previous T-bill auction on 22 October.

The yield on the 3-month MAS bill can also indicate the yields for shorter-maturity Singapore government bonds.

The cut-off yield was at 1.87% in the auction on 27 October 2026, remaining unchanged from the cut-off yield on 20 October 2026.

#3 – T-bill issuance size is lower than the previous auction

The issuance size of the upcoming 6-month Singapore T-bill is $8.5 billion, which is lower than $8.6 billion in the previous auction on 22 October.

We saw a fall in T-bill applications to S$16.1 billion in the auction on 22 October, from S$17.8 billion in the auction on 8 October.

Given the issuance size rising to S$8.6 billion from S$8.3 billion in the previous auction, the bid-to-cover ratio fell to 1.87x in the previous auction on 22 October.

What would Beansprout do?

The closing yield on the 6-month Singapore T-bill was 1.92% on 29 October, slightly below the cut-off yield of 1.95% in the previous auction.

This comes as US government bond yields have declined slightly in the past two weeks.

Within my Four Pots of Wealth, I would consider T-bills alongside other options for my Liquidity Pot, where my priority is keeping money for near-term needs relatively accessible while earning some interest.

Currently, the closing yield on the 6-month Singapore T-bill of 1.92% is lower than the best 6-month fixed deposit rate of 2.10% for a minimum deposit of $10,000.

With some banks starting to increase savings account interest rates, we were able to find savings accounts in Singapore that offer an interest rate of above 1.92% p.a.

The 6-month Singapore T-bill auction will be held on 4 November (Wednesday). We would need to put in our cash applications for the T-bills by 9pm on 3 November (Tuesday).

If you are new to investing in the T-bill, check out our comprehensive guide to Singapore T-bills to learn more.

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