Oil swings as Middle East conflict persists: Weekly Market Recap

I don’t own a car and don’t drive (you may have seen me standing on the train), but this week’s discussion in the Beansprout Telegram group has been all about petrol prices.

That’s not surprising. Oil prices have jumped back to levels we last saw during the Ukraine conflict, and suddenly inflation is back in everyone’s vocabulary again. 

Moments like this are a good reminder of why we save and invest in the first place. Not just to grow our money, but to make sure we’re financially prepared when the world throws us something unexpected.

This is something we also discussed with our Money Diaries guest this week. Our guest reminds us that savings aren’t just for retirement, they are what give us the confidence and flexibility to take risks in life. Catch the conversation in our latest podcast episode here. 

On the practical side, one of the first things many of us think about when uncertainty rises is where to park our cash. Earlier, we shared the best places to park your cash for higher yield , and this week we saw the T-bill yield edge up slightly to 1.37%, although the increase is still slower than what we’ve seen in U.S. bond yields.

Next, we look at the income part of the portfolio. We review several Singapore REITs now offering dividend yields above 6% after the recent market pullback, and break down the latest Lendlease REIT preferential offering and what it means for unitholders. 

For investors looking at blue-chip stocks, we also look at the best-performing STI names in February 2026. Interestingly, many of the winners were industrial stocks tied to the oil and gas sector, helped by improving sentiment towards the sector.

And for those thinking about gold as a hedge against uncertainty, we compare the gold ETFs available in Singapore and walk through how to choose the one that best fits your portfolio.

It’s hard to predict where oil prices will go next week. But the key is to make sure that whether oil prices move up or down, we’ve built a diversified portfolio that can give us a safety net.

Happy growing!

Gerald, Founder of Beansprout

⏰ This Week In Markets

🛢️ Middle East conflict drives oil price volatility

What happened? 

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures surged to an intra-day high of about US$119 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, raising fears that the conflict could escalate further and disrupt oil supply.

Prices later reversed sharply, falling to around US$77 per barrel, after Trump suggested that the war was largely over, easing concerns about a prolonged disruption to energy markets.

However, sentiment turned cautious again on Tuesday after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it could be the most intense day of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the start of the conflict, reducing investor confidence that the situation will be resolved quickly.

What does this mean?

It remains uncertain how long the conflict will last, and investors are trying to assess the risk of prolonged supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. 

Uncertainty over how high oil prices could rise has contributed to the choppy and volatile movements seen in equity markets.

Higher oil prices have also pushed U.S. government bond yields higher, partly due to rising near-term inflation expectations. After falling to about 3.96% on 27 February, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has since climbed to around 4.28%.

Why should I care?

U.S. stocks declined in a volatile week, as sharp swings in oil prices kept investors on edge. Sentiment was also affected by other sources of uncertainty, including renewed concerns about stress in parts of the private credit market.

Gold prices eased slightly to around US$5,000 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar strengthened alongside rising bond yields, with the dollar index climbing to its highest level since November.

Singapore stocks were relatively more resilient, with the Straits Times Index (STI) ending the week close to flat. Gains were led by companies seen as potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices, including Wilmar, which rose about 8.9%. SGX also moved higher amid stronger trading activity, after reporting its highest securities daily average value since 2020 in February.

🚗  Moving This Week

• SGX said February delivered its highest securities daily average value since 2020, with SDAV up 45% YoY to S$2.1b and total securities turnover rising 30% to S$38.5b, alongside the STI briefly crossing 5,000. Trading was broad-based, with small/mid-cap turnover up 135% and retail daily turnover up 45% to a 13-year high, while ETF turnover surged 172% to S$1.1b on net inflows of S$643m and SRS ETF investments topping S$1b for the first time. Read more here.
• SATS said its Middle East cargo operations have not seen any material interruption since the Iran conflict escalated on 28 Feb, with facilities in Saudi Arabia and Oman continuing to operate under safety protocols despite airspace closures elsewhere. The company noted its Saudi stations’ cargo volumes rose 12% from 2024 to 2025 but remain a small part of global tonnage, and said it can reroute shipments via alternative gateways and support emergency supplies into GCC markets as trade lanes adjust. Read more here.
• OCBC expects regional transaction banking growth to keep outpacing Singapore, with revenue currently split about 60:40 (Singapore vs regional) but management says the regional share could reach parity or exceed Singapore by end-2026 as cross-border trade-linked fees and FX transactions rise and Chinese corporates expand into Southeast Asia. Read more here.
• GuocoLand’s 99-year leasehold River Modern (District 9) sold 90% of its 455 units over its launch weekend at an average S$3,266 psf, with prices from S$1.5m (2-bed) to S$6.7m (4-bed), driven largely by Singaporean/PR owner-occupiers. Read more here.
• Sembcorp Industries is seeking a A$3.0b loan for its Australian unit to support its A$6.5b enterprise-value acquisition of Alinta Energy. The deal is targeted to complete in 1H 2026 pending regulatory approvals. Read more here.
• UI Boustead REIT, SGX’s first mainboard REIT listing of 2026, debuted at S$0.805, 8.5% below its S$0.88 IPO price. The REIT lists with 23 industrial/logistics assets, including 21 in Singapore and 2 in Japan valued at S$1.9b.

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Business Times, Edge Singapore

💡 The Big Important Story

3 best-performing Singapore blue chip stocks in February. Can the rally continue?

We look at the top three Singapore blue chip stocks in February 2026. With gains of 13% or more in February, we find out if their rally can be sustained.

🤓 What we're looking out for next week

• Monday, 16 March 2026: Sasseur REIT ex-dividend
• Tuesday, 17 March 2026: FOMC Meetings begin
• Wednesday. 18 March 2026: Fed Interest Rate Decision, Micron earnings
• Thursday, 19 March 2026: Alibaba earnings, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data

Get the full list of stocks with upcoming dividends here. 

Source: SGX, Bloomberg, Refinitiv

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